Column: The Race for Jewish Votes

‘The free-for-all antisemitism acts affect Jewish people in a very bad way’

— Brooklyn state Senator Simcha Felder

New York City Councilwoman Inna Vernikov, a Republican, could be proven right with her prediction in Monday’s New York Post: “I believe the Jewish vote is going to shift to the right in astronomical numbers in this election. The deeply rooted antisemitic rot in the Democratic Party is obvious. Jewish Dems feel betrayed, and they’re going to soundly reject it at the ballot box.”

Vice President Kamala Harris is positioned to prevent some or most Jews from fleeing the Democratic Party to vote for Donald J. Trump as president on Nov. 5.

Until President Biden endorsed Harris to succeed him, Democrats confronted the loss of anti-Israel voters in the swing states who pledged to support a third-party candidate or not vote at all, which will benefit Trump. Harris’ very candidacy could forestall that…if she wants. Not to mention that she has an opportunity to ease burdens on American Jews.

If it has not been spelled out, the driving force in this election is the determination to elect the first woman president so long as she propels policies that the vast majority of American women seek. In the process, Kamala’s candidacy has sidelined most issues that do not affect women. As a caveat, it is long overdue that we elect a woman to the presidency, though I am not sure yet if Harris is up to the job. I would feel far more comfortable with Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer as the Democratic nominee.

Those sidelined issues include the conflict between Israel and Hamas. Liberal women who protested the deaths of Palestinian civilians are faced with the choice of punishing Democrats for Biden’s support of Israel or voting to elect the first woman to occupy the Oval Office. What decision can we expect?

Women could justify their change of heart by claiming that Harris now has the freedom to put forward her own plans.

Harris can now ignore extremists in the pro-Palestinian campaign, though she needs to address legitimate concerns. This frees her, and American Jews, of the pressure that anti-Israel protesters have placed on Democrats.

Republicans claimed in a New York Post article on Monday that a large number of Jewish voters can flock to Trump’s side in battleground states and House districts in New York state. The article did not include Wisconsin along with Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania. All six states have substantial Jewish populations that could tip the election to Trump in a close race.

Jewish anger with Democrats could save Republican incumbents in some New York congressional districts and even flip other House seats. Most of this reaction would originate in Orthodox Jewish communities in Brooklyn and Rockland County.

During the past three decades, the vast majority of American Jews habitually voted Democrat for presidential candidates, members of Congress, governors and other down-ballot nominees. Former presidential nominees Biden, Obama, Kerry, Gore and both Clintons all won states or portions thereof with large Jewish populations, particularly New York (1.5 million), California (1 million), New Jersey (nearly half-million) and south Florida (half-million). In their best years, Republicans received no more than a third of the Jewish vote in any presidential year.

Most American Jews support gun-safety laws, improved health-care coverage, abortion rights, affordable housing, tax equity and other liberal policies… joined with the unspoken proviso that the government will protect Israel. By 2018, America’s relationship with Israel morphed into a sensitive national issue when four newly-elected Democratic members of the House of Representatives formed the notorious “Squad,” which coordinated fact-free attacks against Israel that in turn incited antisemitic acts far outside the Beltway.

Trump received 41 percent of Florida’s Jewish vote in the 2020 presidential election, a sign that this trend could rise on Nov. 5. Two of the now-seven Squad members were ousted in recent Democratic primaries. Rep. Ilhan Omar of Minneapolis survived her primary on Tuesday.

Like Councilwoman Vernikov, who represents much of south Brooklyn, Democratic state Sen. Simcha Felder projected an overwhelming shift in Jewish votes in his section of Brooklyn, mainly Midwood and Borough Park. “They are going to take it out on who is in power, and the Democrats are in power,” he told the Post. “The free-for-all antisemitism acts affect Jewish people in a very bad way.”

He said that Trump will defeat Harris 2-1 in his district.

It would be no surprise if many non-Orthodox Jews have thought along the same lines, and Harris can staunch that. She got off to a bad start by picking Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz instead of Pennsylvania Gov. Joshua Shapiro, an observant Jew, as her running mate. That choice triggered accusations that she bowed to antisemites who opposed Shapiro’s selection. I grant that antisemitism probably played a role, but it was not a prevailing influence.

Harris already fired a shot across the bow of the Palestinians’ sinking ship last Wednesday (Aug. 7) when she held a rally in Detroit. After a confusing meeting with Arab-Americans, Harris faced down anti-Israel hecklers who interrupted her speech, saying, “If you want Donald Trump to win, then say that. Otherwise, I’m speaking.”

Where that leads is anybody’s guess.

The next day, Trump left out crucial facts about his voter base when he told reporters, “If anybody I know is Jewish and they would vote for Kamala over me, they should have their head examined.”

For those who spent time where Trump’s most loyal voters live, you know what is missing from Trump’s words: These people are among the most obstinate racists and antisemites anywhere in America. You cannot talk to them. They won’t talk to you if you try. In their view, Blacks are hardened criminals and Jews are Christ-killers. I have not tried much, but I think many supporters of the Palestinians are persuadable to a tolerable degree.

Harris needs to be sensitive to legitimate criticism of Israel, but she can forgo giving in to demands that could harm Israel. There is a middle ground that can satisfy reasonable people.